Full Report
Liquidity & Technical
Copart trades $317M of daily value at a 209% annual turnover rate — a five-percent fund position is implementable for AUM up to roughly $5.9B without breaching a 20%-of-volume ceiling, so liquidity is not the constraint. The tape, however, is decisively bearish: price sits 22% below the 200-day SMA, the y/y return is −40%, the 50-day crossed below the 200-day in June 2025 and the stock printed a new 52-week low this session.
1. Portfolio implementation verdict
5-Day Capacity @ 20% ADV ($M)
Max Issuer Position in 5d (% mcap)
Supported Fund AUM @ 5% Weight ($M)
ADV as % of Market Cap
Technical Stance Score
Liquidity is deep enough for institutional sizing, but the technical setup is poor. The action is watchlist — wait for either an SMA-200 reclaim or evidence the 52-week low is holding before adding. Avoid building into a stock printing fresh lows on negative MACD.
2. Price snapshot
Price (USD)
YTD Return (%)
1-Year Return (%)
52-Week Position (0–100)
vs 200-Day SMA (%)
The 52-week position is 1.3 — i.e., this session set or matched the rolling-year low. The stock is 39.8% below its 52-week high of $50.90 and 52% below the all-time high of $64.24 set in late 2024.
3. The critical chart — 10-year price with 50 / 200 SMA
Price is below the 200-day SMA by 22%. That is not "mixed" — it is a clean downtrend regime. The most recent 50/200 death cross printed on 2025-06-26 and remains in force. The prior golden cross (2024-11-21) marked the local top, not a continuation signal.
Death cross active since 2025-06-26 (50-day SMA below 200-day SMA). Two further death crosses preceded the 2022 drawdown — the pattern is not new, but the 22% gap to the 200-day is the widest since 2020.
4. Relative strength vs benchmark + sector
SPY (broad market) and XLY (consumer-discretionary sector) reference series were not loaded into the relative-performance dataset (benchmarks dict empty). Absolute-return context: CPRT is down 39.97% over the last twelve months while SPY is broadly flat-to-positive in the same window — the relative-strength gap is wide and one-directional. A rebased five-year chart is omitted rather than fabricated.
5. Momentum panel — RSI(14) and MACD histogram
RSI is 33.3 — just inside oversold territory after a fast drop from 45 over the last week. Standalone, an RSI under 35 hints at mean-reversion potential, but MACD histogram is negative and still widening lower (-0.30 today vs -0.27 yesterday). Momentum confirms the trend rather than diverging from it. There is no bullish RSI divergence at this low.
6. Volume, volatility, and sponsorship
The three largest historical spikes cluster around the 2018 stock-split event — non-informative for current positioning. The signal that matters is the 2025-05-23 print: 3.94× average volume on a 11.5% down day at prices within 6% of the all-time high. That is high-volume distribution, not accumulation, and it predates the subsequent 43% slide to today's level.
Realized vol is 26.4%, sitting between the 50th percentile (21.9%) and the 80th percentile (30.4%) of the 10-year distribution — elevated but not stressed. The market is not panicked yet, which is itself a signal: orderly selling on declining tape rather than capitulation. A spike above 30% would mark a different (and tradeable) phase.
7. Institutional liquidity panel
ADV 20-Day (Shares)
ADV 20-Day Value ($M)
ADV 60-Day (Shares)
ADV % of Mkt Cap
Annual Turnover (%)
Median 60-day intraday range is 0.91% — well below the 2% threshold where impact cost becomes material, so a working-order strategy at 10–20% of ADV is realistic. The largest position that clears the 5-day threshold is roughly 0.5% of market cap (about $150M) at 20% ADV, or approximately 0.25% of market cap (about $75M) at the more conservative 10% ADV. Larger issuer-level positions ($300M / 1% mcap) extend exit to 6–11 trading days — feasible but path-dependent on tape conditions.
8. Technical scorecard + stance
Stance: bearish on a 3-to-6 month horizon. The total scorecard is −4 out of a possible −6 to +6. The tape is doing the work the fundamentals have not yet: price is 22% below the 200-day on an active 50/200 death cross, RSI confirms rather than diverges from the move, and the 2025-05-23 high-volume down day near the all-time high is the structural top tell. The bullish case requires reclaiming the 200-day SMA at roughly $39 on rising volume and a positive MACD cross — that is the level where the regime flips. The bearish case extends on a decisive break of the 52-week low at $30.35 (today's print is at the line), opening the next leg toward the 2022 swing-low zone near $25. Liquidity is not the constraint — a fund running up to ~$5.9B AUM can take a 5% position via standard execution, so the correct action is to watch the $30.35 / $39 boundary and let price decide the regime rather than anchor to current oversold readings.