Liquidity & Technical

Liquidity & Technical

Copart trades roughly $297M of stock per day with a 209% annual turnover — institutionally implementable for funds up to about $5.8B at a 5% position weight, executed over five days at 20% participation. The tape, however, is telling a different story than the operating quality the financials suggest: price is 18% below its 200-day SMA, sits on its 52-week low of $32.30, and has shed 37% over the last twelve months while the broader market has not. The single most important feature of the chart is not the death cross from June 2025 — it is that every rally since that cross has failed below the 200-day, and the most recent attempt died at $40.

1. Portfolio implementation verdict

2. Price snapshot

3. Ten-year price with 50/200 SMA

Regime read: secular uptrend from $5 (2016) to the $64 all-time high in early 2024 has clearly broken. The 2025–2026 lower-highs and the failed reclaim of the 200-day in February 2026 mark this as a downtrend, not a consolidation.

4. Relative trajectory — last three years

5. Momentum — RSI and MACD

RSI sits at 41.98 — neutral on the indicator, but the path matters: RSI has not closed a single week above 70 since April 2025, and it has spent more time below 40 than above 50 over the trailing six months. That is the signature of a stock in distribution, not consolidation. The MACD histogram flipped negative in the last reading after a constructive April–May, which is a near-term warning rather than an oversold signal. Momentum is weak and re-rolling — not yet at washout extremes.

6. Volume, sponsorship, and volatility regime

The three largest historical volume spikes are all from 2018 and reflect distribution events tied to that era's reset. More relevant to today: the 23 May 2025 session printed 3.94× average volume on an 11.5% decline at $53.67 — the unmistakable mark of institutional liquidation, and the inflection that began the current downtrend. Recent weeks (mid-May and end-May 2026) have seen volume re-accelerate to ~17M shares versus an 8M baseline, with price drifting lower on those expansions — that is selling pressure, not accumulation.

Realized volatility today (22.7% annualized) is right at the 5-year median (21.9%) — calm by Copart's own standards, well below the p80 stress band of 30%. The market is not pricing panic, just a slow grind lower. That is meaningfully different from a capitulation tape; an oversold reading with normal vol implies the selling is being absorbed in an orderly way rather than spiking. There is no volatility-driven washout signal here yet.

7. Institutional liquidity panel

Price-range proxy. Median daily trading range over the trailing 60 sessions is 0.90% of price — well under the 2% impact threshold. Block buyers should expect to pay close to mid; no special handling needed for orders sized under a half-day of ADV.

The bottom line on liquidity. At 20% ADV participation, an institutional buyer can establish or exit roughly 0.5% of the company's market cap (~$158M) over five trading days; the more conservative 10% rate caps that at 0.46% (~$144M). On a fund-AUM basis, a 5% position is implementable in five days for funds up to about $5.8B at 20% participation, or $2.9B at the gentler 10% rate. Above $10B in fund AUM, this becomes a multi-week build at 20% — still possible, but no longer a five-day decision. The capacity-constrained label in the data feed is conservative; for typical long-only and mid-sized hedge funds, CPRT is institutionally tradable with size awareness, not capacity-blocked.

8. Technical scorecard and stance

Total: −4 of ±6. Bearish on the 3-to-6 month horizon. The setup is a downtrend with weak momentum, no capitulation, and unfriendly relative behavior — the classic profile of a stock that takes one more leg lower before it bottoms.

Two price levels that change the view.

• Bullish trigger — close above $40. That is roughly the 200-day SMA today; a weekly close above it would confirm the downtrend is broken, neutralize the June 2025 death cross, and put the $43 lower-high (early Nov 2025) back in play as the next test. Until then, every relief rally is selling-into.
• Bearish trigger — break of $32.30. That is the 52-week low (29 May 2026); a daily close below it likely opens the door to the 2022 pivot zone near $28, roughly 14% of further downside. With realized vol at the 5-year median, downside would be orderly rather than violent — which means the bid won't appear cheaply.

Liquidity is not the constraint — the tape is. For a fund considering this name, the correct action is watchlist with a tight buy trigger above $40 or a wait-for-capitulation entry near $28; sizing into the current setup at the 52-week low, with weak momentum and no benchmark relative-strength cushion, would mean fighting both trend and tape with nothing on the technical side to lean on.